(Reuters) – Gold prices will rise in 2024 from this year’s average on bets that global central banks will start easing monetary policy and after the Middle East conflict boosted gold’s safe-haven rally above $2,000, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The poll of 30 analysts and traders, conducted in October, showed a median forecast for gold of $1,986.5 a troy ounce in 2024, up from $1,925 expected this year.
Respondents have lowered their forecasts slightly since July, when a similar survey predicted gold would average $1,988 an ounce in 2024 and $1,944.5 in 2023.
“Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to underpin gold in the short term, although we do not see a sustained challenge above $2,000 an ounce until Western central banks, particularly the (US) Federal Reserve, adopt a more accommodative stance,” said Fastmarkets analyst James Moore.
While most economists still expect the Fed to taper by mid-2024, the latest poll shows that only 55% support this scenario, down from over 70% last month.
Gold, used to preserve wealth in times of economic and political uncertainty, rose more than 7% in October as the Israel-Hamas war boosted safe-haven bets. The metal rose above the key psychological $2,000 level for the first time since May.
“Gold has a long history as a geopolitical hedge and has lived up to its reputation,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke said “a return to record highs should only be possible in the event of a severe slowdown in the US economy, leading to a longer and more widespread recession”.
For silver, the survey forecast median prices of $24.85 per ounce in 2024 and $23.20 in 2023, down slightly from the previous survey.
Silver, which lost more than 2 per cent in the third quarter, followed the safe-haven gold fleet with a gain of more than 3 per cent in October.
“We expect it to outperform gold in 2024 on the back of strong demand growth from the photovoltaic sector,” said Capital Economics analyst Caroline Bain.
