Gold futures surged on Monday, closing above the crucial 50-day moving average, driven by economic data that bolstered expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Last Friday, gold futures hit their lowest point since reaching a record high of $2,477.10 and a record close of $2,461.40 on May 20. This decline culminated in a dramatic three-day drop, bottoming out at $2,351 on May 23. The price of gold declined by over $88 per troy ounce between May 22 and 23 and traded sideways until hitting a low last Friday. The recent recovery was spurred by a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell 0.53% to 104.09, its lowest level since April 9.
The resurgence in gold prices is largely attributed to growing concerns over the state of the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in May, with new goods orders dropping at the fastest pace in nearly two years. This, along with a moderation in inflation indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report released on Friday, has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts this year to support the economy.
Historically, gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty and low interest rates, as it tends to perform well in such environments. The recent data releases have reignited optimism among investors that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may have achieved their desired effect, paving the way for a potential shift in monetary policy later in the year.
According to Reuters, “U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for a second straight month in May as new goods orders dropped by the most in nearly two years, but a measure of input inflation fell back from the highest since mid-2022, a monthly survey showed on Monday.”
The recent downturn in gold prices, which saw the precious metal dip below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February, was attributed to fluctuating expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. However, the latest economic data has reignited bullish sentiment in the gold market, as investors anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy in the coming months.
As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and managing inflationary pressures, gold’s performance will likely remain closely tied to the central bank’s policy decisions and the broader economic landscape.
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